NFL: Top QBs who can affect the lines
By W.G. Ramirez
LAS VEGAS -- The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are laying -8 1/2 points at the Westgate when they visit the New York Jets for Sunday Night Football.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is healthy and the Chiefs' offense found its groove last week in a rout of the Chicago Bears.
But hypothetically, as the most valued quarterback in the NFL per sports books, Mahomes' absence would translate into probably a 7-point move - regardless of the opponent.
Per Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management at the Westgate, Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are likely the five most powerful quarterbacks that could affect a line if any of them were to miss a game. And that doesn't include Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was lost for the season just four plays into the season opener.
We just saw books make an adjustment based on Burrow's status for Monday Night Football last week against the Rams, as he's been nursing a calf injury. The Bengals were 6 1/2-point favorites in a Super Bowl 56 rematch against the Rams, but when his status was questionable and some there was concern he wouldn't play, the Bengals dipped to -2.
Sherman said it's a slippery slope when dealing with unknown statuses, or even overcompensation for certain players listed out, as sharps can end up making moves on both sides and end up with a sizable middle.
"More often than not, you'll see that, where these top quarterbacks that you're talking about, we'll make this adjustment because that's how the majority of the public is like, 'Oh, I'm not going to bet that team with him out,'" Sherman said. "But then the sharps will get involved and say they think we've made too much of an adjustment, putting too much stock in the public perception."
On the flipside, there is a quarterback who is having a negative effect on the line, Sherman added.
Carolina rookie Bryce Young was able to practice after missing last week with an ankle injury. Minnesota was laying a field goal originally, but when Young was cleared to play, the number on the Vikings went to -4.
"If Andy Dalton was playing it would have been less," Sherman said. "So he's got a negative effect with his rookie status."
So why does this matter, and when should it be taken into effect?
If a quarterback sustains a serious injury and will be out for a long period of time, it may not make as big a feal for a defensive-minded team, or with a quality backup. It's important to take into consideration the patterns of efficiency without the quarterback, and if a team can convert on third down, if the running game increases its carries and yardage, and where the scoring production is coming from.
By gauging how a team is performing once a quarterback is lost, you can go back to Sherman's sentiments about overcompensation, and and see why sharps may play an undervalued team with a superior defense or efficient offense.
All things to keep in mind as we'll approach the second quarter of the season and injuries will begin to mount for certain teams.
Now, let's try to feed off of last week's 4-1 mark with another round of best bets (all numbers will be graded by Thursday's line at the Westgate):
DOLPHINS (+2') at Bills
I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, absolutely. I don't trust Buffalo's defense as much as I do Miami's and fully believe if the Dolphins can pull off this road win, they've given us the best overall performances on both sides of the ball from the AFC. Look for an outright win.
BRONCOS (-3) at Bears
People will be wary of a team that just allowed 70 points and is back on the road. But Denver couldn't ask for a better opponent to flex on this week, as Chicago may have supplanted Arizona as the worst team in football. Coach Sean Payton isn't about to stand for a fourth straight loss.
UNDER (40') Ravens at Browns
Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league through the first three weeks. This one being at home, I expect the Browns to clamp down on the front line and make life difficult for Jackson. Baltimore's defense has also performed well, and could be a menace for Deshaun Watson.
EAGLES (-8) vs. Commanders
Washington was just brought back down to earth by Buffalo, as Eric Bienemy's offense couldn't find the end zone in their own stadium. In fact, the Commanders managed to get into Buffalo territory just four times, and only twice made it to the Red Zone. Now they visit Philly, and that's trouble.
COWBOYS (-6') vs. Patriots
Dallas will be a bit angry after last week's loss in Arizona. The Pokes outplayed the Cardinals in different aspects, with more first-downs (26-20), more offensive yards (416-400) and better third-down efficiency (56% to 50%). They just couldn't score. They'll take their frustrations out on New England.
WEEK 3 RECORD: 4-1
SEASON RECORD: 7-8
