Is buying a half point worth it?

PHOTO COURTESY: Minnesota Vikings

By W.G. Ramirez

LAS VEGAS — To buy, or not to buy?

That is the question every football season when it comes to purchasing the proverbial half-point on or off of 3.

There once was a time when the sharps employed the practice, and had no problem paying an extra 10 cents to get on of off the key numbers of 3 or 7.

But now that sportsbooks have more than accounted for the perception of the value of those two numbers - a field goal and touchdown with a one-point extra point - it's strictly a public move.

"We charge (for) buying half a point this year, an extra 15 cents on numbers," said Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management at the Westgate. "But then on 3 and 7 you're charged more. ... The value is not there because the numbers are accounted for by the books, by the extra charge on it. But there's a perception of how much the public thinks 3 and 7 mean that they just often do it. But the sharps never do it."

In fact, Sherman added, he doesn't see sharps buying half-points in any sport that often for the simple fact a lot of sports books continue to increase their pricing model on the practice.

This season at the Westgate bettors can buy more than one-half point, going up to as much as a two-point purchase to move the line in bettors' favor. And the public has been jumping on the offer.

"They like doing it and going through numbers and paying the extra. We've seen people buy a couple of points and paying -170 all the time,” Sherman said. “And it's crazy because you're not even that far off where you're almost paying more than what the moneyline would be, and you're still laying points."

Since 2014, laying off the practice of purchasing half points has been a wise decision by the, uhm, wiseguys.

In that span, there have been 789 games where the point spread ranged between 2.5 and 3.5 per Stathead, giving bettors an opportunity to buy on or off of 3.

But only 66 of those games landed on 3, a very paltry 8.3%.

And of those 50 games that landed on a field goal margin, the favorite covered 16 times at -2.5, while 18 of them didn't cover the 3.5-point spread. That leaves 32 with a push.

The thought of 7 being a key number should be considered even more scarce based on returns from Stathead in that same stretch, as there have been just 394 games where the point spread ranged between 6.5 and 7.5, giving bettors an opportunity to buy on or off of 7.

And only 24 of those games landed on 7, a measly 6.0% of those contests.

"It's a low percentage, but it's the perception of that and what people are willing to pay," Sherman said. "And in regular season, if you're too low on the pricing of it you're gonna get inundated with it even though you say it lands less. But you're just opening yourselves up to that, where if it did land (on 3) you're gonna have a large decision on it."

During the same stretch since 2014, here is a breakdown of the point differentials from NFL regular season final scores:

• 0-point margin: 10 games

• 1-point margin: 102 games

• 2-point margin: 102 games

• 3-point margin: 338 games

• 4-point margin: 105 games

• 5-point margin: 93 games

• 6-point margin: 161 games

• 7-point margin: 199 games

• 8-point margin: 104 games

• 9-point margin: 45 games

• 10-point margin: 122 games

• 11-point margin and higher: 970 games

So the next time you're feeling the urge to buy the half point on or off of the "key numbers" of 3 or 7, keep in mind you're looking at a 7.6% chance the game will fall directly on those numbers.

Speaking of landing on the number, the Eagles closed a 6-point favorite to Minnesota on Thursday and then won 38-24. Glad I didn't have an opinion on that game.

So let's get to the good stuff so I can rinse off last week's 2-3 mark with this week's best bets (all numbers will be graded by Thursday's line at the Westgate):

Buccaneers (-2') vs. Bears

This point spread has made a 3-point swing, from the Bears opening a 1 1/2-point favorite to the Bucs laying 2 1/2. Ride the line move, as it's not as much for me about Baker Mayfield vs. Justin Fields as it is about which defense I trust more. Tampa Bay's blitz packages will be trouble.

Giants (-4) at Cardinals

It might have been the most talked about point spread when the lines came out, considering the Giants were shut out at home by Dallas, 40-0, but then opened 5 1/2-point favorites in Arizona. It's kind of telling, isn't it? There's a reason many power rankings have the Cardinals at the bottom of their lists. New York isn't as bad as it looked, and the Redbirds clearly aren't the Cowboys.

Under (45) 49ers at Rams

I'm not sure many expected the Rams to go into Seattle and stifle the Seahawks. But the fact Seattle's offensive drives ended in a score just 33.3% of the time, and the Rams limited the 'Hawks to 3.9 yards per play was quite impressive. Now at home, they're going to match the same defensive intensity against one of the league's best stop units. These NFC West rivals have stayed under 10 of the last 17 meetings.

Broncos (-3') vs. Commanders

I don't think Denver was as bad as it looked, and certainly wasn't impressed by the Commanders in their win over hapless Arizona. Washington produced only 248 yards of offense last week and now has to go into Denver, where the Broncos lost last week and will be looking to avenge the setback.

Browns (-2') at Steelers

If there was a defense I was impressed by, it had to be Cleveland's stop unit that stymied the high-powered Bengals to just 142 yards of offense and kept them out of the Red Zone the entire game. The Bengals were the only team that failed to get inside the 20-yard line last week. After that, 10 teams got into the Red Zone just two times, and Pittsburgh was one of them.

WEEK 1 RECORD: 2-3

SEASON RECORD: 2-3